#555 ( NELSON hahahhah).
What a fabulos topic to blog for the NELSON!!!..!
Kevin McCarthy, the former House speaker on the Patrick Beth David Podcast, Predicting a 269-269 Tie, come November 5th. Intrigued, I explored for some details. Fascinating if this happens!
Yes many are admitting Trump made a tactical mistake in accepting to debate Biden in July which gave Democrats time to test situation and dump him. Also his debate with Harris, he lacked punch and he took so many of her baits she threw and wasted time and didn't go in for the kill. (Yes Moderators were always hostile to him and republicans!). Also the latest Fed Reserve interest rate cut seem to favor Harris. Oh,Yes, the October surprise could derail her march. As many of my American friends say, 2024 is still Trump's election to lose.
A 269-269 tie in the U.S. presidential election can happen because the Electoral College system allocates 538 total electoral votes, and a candidate needs 270 to win. If both candidates receive exactly 269 electoral votes, it would result in a tie. Such a scenario would occur if certain swing states or key battleground states flipped in a way that leads to an even split.
How a 269-269 Tie Could Happen:
To understand this, we need to look at the swing states and how flipping certain key states could lead to such a result. Currently, states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia are considered swing states, but let’s map out one potential path to a 269-269 tie based on the 2020 election results.
Here’s how it could work, assuming the same general political alignment as 2020:
States Won by Biden in 2020 (306 Electoral Votes):
- Arizona (11 votes)
- Georgia (16 votes)
- Wisconsin (10 votes)
- Michigan (15 votes)
- Pennsylvania (20 votes)
- Nevada (6 votes)
- New Hampshire (4 votes)
States Won by Trump in 2020 (232 Electoral Votes):
- Florida (29 votes)
- Texas (38 votes)
- Ohio (17 votes)
- North Carolina (15 votes)
- Iowa (6 votes)
States that Could Flip to Create a Tie (based on 2020 outcomes):
If a few key states that Biden won in 2020 were to flip to Trump, it could result in a 269-269 tie. Here's one possible scenario:
Harris Holds:
- Arizona (11)
- Georgia (16)
- Nevada (6)
- New Hampshire (4)
Trump Flips:
- Wisconsin (10) – Trump flips
- Michigan (15) – Trump flips
- Pennsylvania (20) – Trump flips
Under this scenario, the total for each candidate would be:
- Harris: 269 electoral votes
- Trump: 269 electoral votes
Breakdown of Who Wins What:
States Harris Wins (Total: 269 electoral votes):
- California (55)
- New York (29)
- Illinois (20)
- Virginia (13)
- Colorado (10)
- Minnesota (10)
- Oregon (7)
- New Mexico (5)
- Washington (12)
- Hawaii (4)
- Delaware (3)
- Maryland (10)
- Massachusetts (11)
- Connecticut (7)
- New Jersey (14)
- Rhode Island (4)
- Vermont (3)
- District of Columbia (3)
- Arizona (11)
- Georgia (16)
- Nevada (6)
- New Hampshire (4)
States Trump Wins (Total: 269 electoral votes):
- Texas (38)
- Florida (29)
- Ohio (17)
- North Carolina (15)
- Iowa (6)
- Missouri (10)
- Indiana (11)
- Kentucky (8)
- Tennessee (11)
- West Virginia (5)
- Louisiana (8)
- Mississippi (6)
- Alabama (9)
- South Carolina (9)
- Arkansas (6)
- Oklahoma (7)
- Kansas (6)
- Nebraska (5, including one district for Biden)
- South Dakota (3)
- North Dakota (3)
- Montana (3)
- Idaho (4)
- Wyoming (3)
- Alaska (3)
- Wisconsin (10) – Trump flips
- Michigan (15) – Trump flips
- Pennsylvania (20) – Trump flips
What Happens if There's a 269-269 Tie?
If this 269-269 tie occurs, the election would be decided by the House of Representatives under the 12th Amendment. Each state delegation in the House would get one vote, meaning that the majority of House delegations (not individual representatives) would determine the winner.
Currently, Republicans hold the majority in 26 state delegations, (50) which gives them the bare minimum needed to elect a president in the event of a tie. Meanwhile, 22 state delegations are controlled by Democrats. Two states, Minnesota and North Carolina, are evenly split, meaning they may not contribute decisively unless something changes in the 2024 elections. It’s important to note that the outcome would depend on the House elected in November 2024, which could shift control of some delegations before the voting occurs in early 2025.
Key Factors for This Scenario:
- The swing states are critical. The states that flipped from Trump to Biden in 2020 (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia) would need to flip back to Trump.
- A few combinations of flipping states could also result in a tie, but this is one of the more plausible scenarios.
Karthik.
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