As the dawn breaks on another year, it's time to gaze into the horizon of possibilities and project our expectations for the twelve months ahead. Forecasting the future, especially in the whirlwind of today's interconnected world, is a complex task. Nevertheless, armed with insights gleaned from years of observing global dynamics, I've assembled a set of twenty-four predictions spanning the realms of India, the United States, the global landscape, economics, politics, and even the realm of sports. These prognostications are not certainties but rather informed speculations rooted in a keen observation of past trends and an understanding of the present state of affairs. Join me on this journey of foresight as we explore what the year 2024 might hold in store across various spheres that shape our world. There are 24 questions that I have attempted in two parts. Today I attempted 15 and tomorrow (3rd Jan) another 9.
Disclosure:- I have got 80% FT scenario 2023 right and also got as my son knows, predicted 3 of Noble Prize winners rightly. So this attempt..
India:-
1)Will India's economic growth continue its upward trajectory in 2024, and if so, what will be the key drivers?
(6.5% is my estimate. India will do better than most countries.)
India’s economic growth is projected to be around 6.5% to 6.8% in 2024, according to a report by Deloitte. The key drivers of this growth are expected to be private consumption and investment spending, supported by the government’s focus on infrastructure, digital transformation, and social welfare schemes. India’s economy is also likely to benefit from the recovery of the global economy and the easing of geopolitical uncertainties.
2) What political developments are you anticipating in India in the coming year, and how will they impact the country's social and economic landscape?
(I expect Narendar Modi to become Third Time Primeminister like Jawahar Lal Nehru did. I expect BJP to win between 290-300 Parliament Seats out of 543. South India will shun BJP. Modi will beat Indhra Gandhi to shame in embracing socialism and push India down the drain. Also, the North South divide will only increase. )
India’s political developments in 2024 will be influenced by the outcome of the general elections, which are scheduled to be held in April-May. The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi will face a challenge from a 26-party alliance called I.N.D.I.A., which has emerged to offer an alternative vision for the country2. The elections will have implications for India’s domestic and foreign policies, as well as its social and economic reforms.
3) What advancements can we expect in India's tech sector in 2024, and how will they impact various aspects of life?
(Tech Sector will embrace AI and will do better. I expect some reverse Brain Drain to start happening from west in to India.)
India’s tech sector is expected to witness a surge in hiring, innovation, and investment in 2024, according to various reports34. The demand for skills such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, cloud computing, cybersecurity, and blockchain will increase, as well as the opportunities for entrepreneurship and research. India’s tech sector will also play a key role in addressing the challenges and opportunities posed by the digital transformation of various sectors, such as health, education, agriculture, and finance.
4) Will there be any major changes in India's social policies and attitudes towards issues like gender equality, LGBTQ+ rights, and religious tolerance?
(India being conservative country and with BJP coming back to power, I see no change /improvement on these issues. Disclosure: I am a die hard conservative and don't want anything done on these fronts. The Surpreme Court judgement not recognising same sex marriage would be the reason to put issues in back burner. )
India’s social policies and attitudes towards issues like gender equality, LGBTQ+ rights, and religious tolerance are unlikely to undergo transformative changes in 2024. Of course, depending on the political and legal developments, of election outcome 2024,as well as the social movements and awareness campaigns. Some of the policy priorities for the new government, as suggested by Brookings India, are to improve the quality and access of education and health care, especially for women and girls; and to promote social harmony and diversity among different religious and ethnic groups.....
5) What challenges will India face in terms of environmental sustainability and climate change in 2024, and what potential solutions are you optimistic about? (Modi Government doesn't beleive seriously in climate change/ ESG etc. So I do not expect major changes. There will be lot of lip service and west bashing. We are long way off in terms of Technical excellence to strive for significant climate change initiatives. Yes, ESG like Woke and Diversity may go off lexicon sooner rather than later. If a Republican occupies White Hose in 2024, then it will be far sooner.)
India’s challenges in terms of environmental sustainability and climate change in 2024 are manifold, such as air and water pollution, waste management, deforestation, biodiversity loss, and extreme weather events. India has committed to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions and increase its renewable energy capacity, as part of its Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy document submitted at COP 277. Some of the potential solutions that India can pursue are to adopt circular economy principles, to invest in green technologies and infrastructure, to enhance its climate resilience and adaptation, and to engage in international cooperation and dialogue.
Global:-
6)Will the ongoing geopolitical tensions between major powers escalate further in 2024, or can we expect some level of de-escalation and diplomatic progress?
(Russia Ukraine war well in to 2025, Israel Gaza Conflict will contine well in to June 2024, Iran could be attacked by Western Alliance with neocons trying to divert USA election issues. China would not wag its tail for Taiwan at least until 2025. UK elections Conservatives would lose power after 24 Years. I expect set back for Lulla in Brazil local elections. Taiwan would vote for a pro China president in its elections. (4.2 Billion out of 8 Billion people would vote in 2024). United Nations as usual will be a toothless, corrupt organisation.)
The ongoing geopolitical tensions between major powers, such as the US, China, Russia, and the EU, are likely to remain high in 2024, as they compete for influence, resources, and security in a multipolar world. However, some level of de-escalation and diplomatic progress may be possible on specific issues, such as arms control, trade, and climate change, if the parties can find common ground and mutual interests12. The UN Secretary-General has called for a Summit of the Future in 2024 to forge a new global consensus on multilateral solutions to current and future problems3.
7)How will the global energy crisis and rising inflation impact different regions and economies in the coming year?
(Europe would have worst time. India, China, may survive. America may have soft landing. With Republican administration, energy issues would disappear in USA. If there is an escalation of war in middle east, energy prices would hit the roof causing inflationary cascade.)
The global energy crisis and rising inflation are expected to have negative impacts on different regions and economies in the coming year, especially on the developing and emerging countries that are more dependent on energy imports and have less fiscal and monetary space to cope with the shocks. The World Bank has warned that high energy prices could slow down the global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and push millions of people into poverty. The International Energy Agency has urged major energy producers and consumers to cooperate and take urgent actions to ensure adequate and affordable energy supplies.
8)What progress do you foresee in addressing global issues like poverty, hunger, and access to healthcare in 2024?
(Africa will lag behind a lot, requiring support, that will lead to more Millitary coup there. Refugee crisis will escalte. Poverty, Hunger would remain at same level as in 2020 or so. Healthcare is rotting with waiting times even in Europe/ USA of 300 days etc. India would do well in the area of alleviating Hunger, poverty. Healthcare is more of you on your own with personal insurance support.).
The progress in addressing global issues like poverty, hunger, and access to healthcare in 2024 will depend largely on the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccination and recovery efforts, as well as the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Paris Agreement on climate change. The UN has reported that the pandemic has reversed decades of progress on these issues, with more than a billion people facing acute food insecurity, and hundreds of millions of people falling into extreme poverty and lacking basic health services. The UN has also launched a Global Humanitarian Overview for 2024, requesting $46.4 billion to assist 180.5 million people in need of humanitarian aid......
9)Will the year 2024 see significant advancements in global cooperation on climate change, and if so, what form might it take?
(With Republican in White House, the clock will be put back. Drill baby Drill will be the norm. Fossil Fuel use will be optimised with global warming reduction efforts tied aggressively. Non conventional energy use would plateu out. Nuclear use would increase.)
Some of the significant decisions made at COP28 were: 1) To transition away from fossil fuels and accelerate the deployment of clean energy, with a special emphasis on renewable energy and energy efficiency. 2) To operationalize a new fund to support developing countries in responding to the loss and damage caused by climate impacts, such as extreme weather events and sea level rise. 3) To enhance the global goal on adaptation, which aims to increase the resilience and reduce the vulnerability of countries and communities to climate change.4) To provide guidance and support to countries in updating and implementing their national climate plans (NDCs), which outline their commitments and actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change. 5) To finalize the rules and modalities of the carbon markets, which allow countries and entities to trade emission reductions and generate finance for climate action. These decisions are expected to have significant impacts on the global efforts to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, as well as to address the challenges and opportunities posed by the climate crisis.
10) What new technologies or trends do you think will have the most significant impact on the global landscape in the coming year?
(I see AI tools becoming common place for day to day use as well as key factor for decision making. Yes, the hardware part for the implementation is a challenge. I see a medical watch with AI feauters in 2025 or so. Also, it will be difficult to identify if the creation is by a human or AI on all non living aspects. I expect great input for healthy food and keeping people healthy by end 2024.)
The new technologies or trends that will have the most significant impact on the global landscape in the coming year are likely to be those that leverage the power of artificial intelligence, data, and connectivity to create innovative solutions for various domains and challenges. Some of the examples are generative AI, which can produce realistic and creative content; computing power, which can enable faster and more complex calculations and simulations; smart devices, which can interact and learn from their environment; datafication, which can transform any aspect of life into data; and blockchain, which can enable secure and decentralized transactions and records1415. These technologies and trends will also pose new ethical, social, and regulatory questions that will require careful consideration and governance.
Economy
11) Will the global economic slowdown continue in 2024, or are there signs of a potential recession?
(I expect global growth around 2.4%. USA will do well, Europe will pull the # down. War efforts would suck the economy down. Also health issues (New Covid Wave?) Can have its own impact.)
According to a Reuters poll of economists, global economic growth will slow to 2.6% in 2024 from 2.9% in 2023, due to high interest rates, increased energy prices and a slowdown in the US and China. However, most economists do not expect a recession, unless there is a major geopolitical shock or a financial crisis.
12) What impact will rising interest rates have on different sectors of the global economy?
(I don't see Interest rates coming down /cut in 2024, May be end of 2024 perhaps...! This will have serious issue for Construction, Manufacturing globally in 2024. I see housing crisis deepening in USA / West leading to resentment which would reflect in elections there. China too would have issues on this front with demand cooling down.)
Rising interest rates have different impacts on different sectors of the global economy. Generally, higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive, reduce disposable income and limit consumer spending. This can hurt sectors that rely on consumer demand, such as retail, leisure and hospitality. Higher interest rates also tend to appreciate the exchange rate, which can make exports less competitive and reduce profits for multinational firms. On the other hand, higher interest rates can benefit sectors that offer higher returns, such as banking, insurance and technology34.
13) Will there be any major disruptions in global supply chains and trade in the coming year?
(The Prepandemic levels of Supply and availability has not returned as yet. 2024 would be another year worked to reach the pre 2020 levels. China cooling/ Taiwan issue as well as Middle east sea route/ Panama Canal running dry, issues can cause issues in Supply chain. Price rises are imminent.)
Global supply chains and trade could face more disruptions in 2024, as the effects of the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the energy crisis and other factors continue to create bottlenecks, shortages and volatility. Some of the industries most affected by supply chain challenges are accommodation and food services, leisure and hospitality, retail trade and manufacturing5. To cope with these disruptions, supply chain organizations will need to invest in digitization, data analytics, artificial intelligence and resilience.
14) How will the labor market and employment trends evolve in different parts of the world in 2024?
(I see 3 day week at office is norm, 5 day work week will be forgotten! I expect new generation of workers hopping jobs like changing shirts. Organisations would struggle to retain talent. Manufacturing would face the worst talent shortage. Emerging regions also have to strive employment terms/ conditions to retain talent. It is sellers Market.)
The labor market and employment trends will vary across different regions and countries in 2024, depending on the pace of economic recovery, the level of vaccination, the degree of policy support and the structural changes caused by the pandemic. Some of the common themes that could emerge are: a shift to remote and hybrid work models, a rise in demand for digital and green skills, a widening of income and gender gaps, a decline in labor force participation and an increase in labor mobility and migration.
15) What new economic models or approaches do you think will gain traction in the coming year?
( I expect Digital Economy to take more leap with AI as an enabler, Sharing Economy would do better than expected. Green Economy would do decent with all the phobia against Green Washing/ESG Hoax. Circular Economy may be the talk/fashion but won't go very far!).!
Circular economy: An economic system that eliminates waste and reuses resources. Green economy: An economic system that fosters low-carbon and socially inclusive development. Sharing economy: An economic system that enables people to access and share goods, services, and resources. Digital economy: An economic system that relies on digital technologies, data, and networks.
Tomorrow 9 more predictions on USA and Sports.
Let me know what you think?
Regards
Karthik
2.1.24 11am.
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