#687
As we mark 10 months into Donald J. Trump's second term as President of the United States—on this crisp October day in 2025—the world watches with a mix of anticipation and déjà vu. Trump, at 79, remains a force of nature: mentally sharp, physically robust, and capable of marathon diplomacy, as evidenced by his grueling 36-hour whirlwind through Egypt and Israel last month. Yet, beneath the bombast and bravado, a troubling pattern emerges in his foreign policy. Is the man who stormed back into the White House on a promise of "America First" unwittingly mirroring the indecisive, interventionist pitfalls of his predecessor, Joe Biden? For global audiences—from the bustling streets of Mumbai to the boardrooms of Brussels—this isn't just American theater; it's a high-stakes drama reshaping alliances, trade routes, and the fragile balance of power in an increasingly multipolar world.
The Ghosts of Presidencies Past: Foreign Policy as America's Eternal Achilles' Heel
American presidents have long stumbled on the global stage, a tradition stretching back to John F. Kennedy's near-catastrophic brush with nuclear brinkmanship during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Trump himself dodged that bullet in his first term, relying on gut instinct over cabinet consensus to avert escalation. But history is littered with fiascos: Jimmy Carter's humiliating Iran hostage crisis, Ronald Reagan's Iran-Contra scandal, Bill Clinton's halting interventions in Bosnia and Serbia, the Bush dynasty's quagmires in Iraq and Afghanistan, Barack Obama's "leading from behind" in Libya, and Biden's outright debacles—from the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal to the escalatory proxy wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
To Trump's enduring credit, he stands alone among the last four decades' leaders as the only U.S. president not to launch a new war. His first term's restraint—brokering the Abraham Accords, pressuring NATO allies to pay up, and avoiding endless Middle East entanglements—earned him plaudits from peace advocates worldwide, including in India, where leaders like Narendra Modi appreciated the stability it brought to energy markets and counterterrorism efforts.
Yet, 10 months in, that legacy feels like a distant memory. Trump's vacillations—flip-flopping on Ukraine aid to the frustration of even Vladimir Putin, who has publicly mused about a more predictable U.S. partner; teasing interventions in Venezuela only to backpedal; launching sporadic strikes on Iran without a coherent endgame; and offering Israel unqualified support amid escalating Gaza tensions—paint a picture eerily reminiscent of Biden's reactive, lobby-driven chaos. Despite Trump's personal sanity and vigor, his administration's foreign policy reeks of confusion, leaving allies like India (navigating its own tightrope with Russia and the West) and enemies alike guessing at America's next move.
The Neocon Shackles: How War Hawks Are Hijacking "America First"
At the heart of this disarray lies Trump's inner circle—a viper's nest of neoconservatives and interventionist hawks who seem hell-bent on dragging him into the very forever-wars he once decried. Figures like Keith Kellogg, Michael Waltz, Marco Rubio (a snake in the grass, arguably more duplicitous than Mike Pompeo ever was), and Lindsey Graham wield outsized influence, whispering escalatory strategies into the Oval Office ear. Trump fires off a morning tweet laced with his trademark common sense—say, calling for de-escalation in Ukraine—only for the lobby to reel him back by evening, issuing a contradictory statement that sows global uncertainty.
This unpredictability isn't just domestic theater; it's eroding U.S. credibility on the world stage. For Indian readers, think of it like the U.S. version of our own coalition government's policy whiplash: one day, a bold QUAD push against China; the next, hedging bets with Moscow. Globally, it confuses partners—from Europe's energy-dependent nations to Asia's trade hubs—who crave consistency in an era of rising powers like China and BRICS challengers.
The latest embarrassment? The abrupt cancellation of the Budapest summit last week, ostensibly a Trump-Orbán brokered parley to thaw U.S.-Russia ties. Blame Rubio and his cohort, who view prolonged conflict as a cash cow for the Military-Industrial Complex (MIC). By unilaterally pulling the plug, the U.S. didn't just humiliate Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán—a staunch Trump ally and Putin sympathizer—but torched his domestic standing ahead of Hungary's 2026 elections. Orbán, once hailed as Europe's anti-globalist firebrand, now faces a tarnished reputation and potential populist uprisings at home. It's a self-inflicted wound that screams Biden-era incompetence: all bluster, no follow-through.
The MAGA Backlash: When "Israel First" Clashes with "America First"
Trump's blind fealty to Israel is the flashpoint igniting fury within his MAGA base—the very foot soldiers who propelled him to victory. Whispers of "dual loyalty" grow louder as politicians like Ted Cruz and Mark Levin declare themselves "Israeli first," a sentiment echoed by the Israel lobby's heavy hitters. AIPAC, that formidable Washington behemoth, doesn't just fund campaigns; it can end them with a single donor dry-up or smear campaign. For a president who railed against "the swamp," cozying up to these forces feels like betrayal.
This isn't abstract ideology; it's personal for MAGA die-hards. Tucker Carlson's recent monologues decry the "endless blank check" to Tel Aviv, while Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene has warned of a "Zionist takeover" alienating working-class voters. Even in India, where Hindu nationalists share affinities with Israel's security ethos, global observers note the hypocrisy: Why prioritize one ally's borders over America's own? The result? A fractured Republican coalition, with heat building on VP J.D. Vance and Rubio as "globalist plants." Trump dodges the flak—for now—but how long before the base's disillusionment boils over into midterm mutiny?
A Counter-Narrative: Is Trump's "Chaos" Actually Calculated Genius?
To be fair, not everyone sees floundering where others spy failure. Detractors might argue Trump's apparent zigzags are less confusion than 4D chess—a deliberate "madman theory" echoing Nixon's playbook to keep adversaries off-balance. His Ukraine waffling? Perhaps a pressure tactic to force Putin to the table without full NATO commitment, sparing U.S. treasure while exposing Europe's freeloading. The Iran strikes? Targeted disruptions to nuclear ambitions, not Biden-style regime-change fever dreams. And Israel support? In a post-October 7 world, it's pragmatic realpolitik: bolstering a key Middle East foothold against Iran and Hamas, much like India's staunch backing of Israel amid its own border skirmishes.
Moreover, Trump's domestic wins—averting a government shutdown, imposing tariffs that shield U.S. manufacturing (and Indian exporters via diversified supply chains), sealing the border, and deploying troops to revitalize blighted Democratic strongholds like Detroit and Baltimore—provide a buffer. These "America First" triumphs remind us: Foreign policy blips haven't tanked his approval ratings yet. For global optimists, this could be the setup for a grand bargain—easing sanctions on Russia, sidelining Europe's sanctimonious nagging, and refocusing on countering China's Belt and Road dominance. After all, Biden's disasters were born of weakness; Trump's, if intentional, stem from strength.
But even this defense strains credulity. With 10 months elapsed, the "it's Biden's mess" excuse rings hollow. The world— from Delhi's think tanks to Davos forums—sees a superpower adrift, its sanctions on Russia yielding diminishing returns as BRICS nations pivot to rupee-ruble trades and yuan settlements. The dollar's reserve status endures, but repeated unreliability chips away at trust, accelerating a fragmented global order.
Charting a Course Correction: A Plea from a Die-Hard Supporter
As a lifelong Trump backer, (From his book the Art of Deal days) I pen this with a heavy heart. Americans entrusted him to dismantle the war lobby's grip—the MIC's trillion-dollar grift, the neocons' forever interventions—and deliver the peace dividend he promised on the campaign trail. It's time to break free: Engage Putin directly, not through hawkish proxies; condition Israel aid on de-escalation; and treat Europe as the junior partner it is, not an equal. For Indian and global audiences, this matters profoundly: A steadier U.S. means fairer trade pacts, reliable tech transfers, and a united front against authoritarian overreach.
Domestic solidity is no consolation for foreign folly—the metric by which history judges leaders. Trump, heed the MAGA roar and your own instincts. Course-correct now, or risk a legacy as tarnished as those you once mocked. The moon you promised isn't visible from this muddled horizon. Get America—and the world—back on track.
Karthik
24/10/25 930am.
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