#683
On October 13, 2025, a historic moment unfolded: 20 Israeli hostages walked free, and the remains of others began their somber journey home. President Donald Trump, standing before the Israeli Knesset, hailed this as a turning point for peace in the Middle East—a chance for Israel to reclaim its prominence in science, technology, and economic prowess while aligning with global expectations. As someone who closely follows Israel and the region’s complex dynamics, I share in the cautious relief of this milestone. The deal, brokered by real estate moguls turned diplomats—Trump, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner—demonstrates the power of pragmatic deal-making. Trump’s tenacity, perhaps sharpened by surviving an assassination attempt, has brought together figures like Benjamin Netanyahu, who famously exasperated Bill Clinton in 1995 with his unyielding stance. (Who the FUCK is the President of United States here, hahahah) The Israeli lobby’s influence in global politics remains undeniable, capable of swaying elections and shaping policy. (Trump Included need to be weary of this)
Yet, despite this breakthrough, I remain deeply skeptical about the prospects for lasting peace in the Middle East—now or in the foreseeable future. My doubts stem not from a lack of hope but from a sobering look at history, politics, and the region’s entrenched realities. Here’s why I believe this “historic” deal is more likely a fleeting ceasefire than a foundation for enduring peace.
- A Temporary Truce, Not a Resolution Israel’s agreement to this deal feels like a pragmatic pause rather than a genuine commitment to peace. After two years of grueling conflict, Israel has faced immense pressure—militarily, economically, and diplomatically. Hamas, an entity Israel once indirectly propped up to counter Mahmoud Abbas’s Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, has proven more resilient than expected. This ceasefire likely reflects Israel’s need for a breather, not a strategic shift. History suggests such truces are short-lived; hostilities could resume within weeks as underlying grievances remain unaddressed.
- The Vision of “Greater Israel” Persists Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition harbors ambitions of a “Greater Israel,” a vision that leaves little room for Palestinian statehood. This ideology, rooted in historical and religious claims, drives policies that prioritize territorial control over coexistence. While the peace deal may temporarily align with Israel’s immediate needs, it’s hard to imagine a government dominated by hardline factions endorsing a two-state solution or any framework that grants Palestinians meaningful sovereignty.
- Lack of Trust in Western Mediators The peace process is likely to involve Western figures like Tony Blair, whose track record in the Middle East is viewed with deep suspicion. The region still bears the scars of unfulfilled promises, like the Balfour Declaration of 1917, which pledged a Jewish homeland without delivering equitable solutions for Palestinians. Middle Eastern leaders, while publicly aligning with Trump for strategic gains—be it fighter jets, trade deals, or geopolitical leverage—are unlikely to trust Western-led initiatives. Their participation feels more transactional than transformative.
- The Plight of Palestinians: A Forgotten Cause The Palestinian cause has lost much of its regional support. Beyond rhetorical solidarity, few Middle Eastern nations prioritize Palestinian welfare. The devastating toll in Gaza—over 300,000 dead, injured, or sick after nearly two years of conflict—has elicited little meaningful action from Arab states. Hamas’s miscalculation on October 7, 2023, squandered initial sympathy, and global protests have amounted to little more than symbolic gestures. Palestinians, increasingly isolated, face a grim reality: they are unwelcome in many places, and their suffering has been normalized.
- The Shadow of Iran Perhaps the most troubling factor is the possibility that this peace deal is a strategic maneuver to prepare for a larger conflict with Iran. Some analysts predict an Israeli strike on Iran by late November 2025, before weather conditions complicate military operations. Israel views Iran’s current regime as an existential threat, and a temporary lull in hostilities could provide the necessary window to regroup, rearm, and rally international support. A regime change in Iran may be Israel’s ultimate goal, but such a move risks escalating the region into a broader, more devastating conflict.
- Historical Precedent and Regional Dynamics Beyond these points, history offers little reason for optimism. Decades of peace initiatives—Oslo, Camp David, the Abraham Accords—have failed to deliver lasting stability. The Middle East’s complex web of alliances, rivalries, and proxy conflicts complicates any straightforward resolution. Sectarian divides, economic disparities, and external influences (from the U.S. to Russia and China) further muddy the waters. Even if Round 1 of this peace deal has been signed, the likelihood of Rounds 2 and 3 materializing feels remote.
I desperately want to be wrong. The hope of peace is seductive, and my heart aches for a region free from violence and division. But my mind, shaped by years of observing the Middle East’s intractable conflicts, tells me this is a temporary reprieve at best. The structural, ideological, and geopolitical barriers to peace remain formidable. Trust your mind, not your heart—it’s a lesson the Middle East has taught us time and again.
A Call to My International Readers To my global audience, I urge you to look beyond the headlines. This deal, while a moment of respite, does not address the root causes of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or the region’s broader tensions. Engage with the perspectives of those on the ground—Israelis, Palestinians, and others across the Middle East. Their voices, often drowned out by grand diplomatic gestures, hold the truth of this region’s pain and potential. Let’s hope for peace but prepare for the likelihood that this truce is merely a calm before the next storm.
Your thoughts?
Karthik
14th October 2025. (Boy, 40 years ago, boarded train to begin my career at Bombay- Time flies)
930am.
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