Modi’s Missed Opportunity: Why Trump May Be Cold-Shouldering India.

 #608

DolandBhai Spoke to Xi Bhai but not to me!!!!! 

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the United States in September 2024, it should have been an opportunity to strengthen ties with a potential ally in Donald Trump, who was then campaigning strongly for his return to the White House. Yet, Modi decided not to meet Trump at Mar-a-Lago, despite Trump expecting a meeting.

This decision to stay neutral—avoiding engagement with either candidate—might have backfired. Trump, known for his sharp memory and transactional diplomacy, likely interpreted Modi’s silence as a lack of loyalty. For someone who values relationships and personal connections, this perceived slight could be hard to ignore.

A Frosty Response From Trump

Since then, signs of a cooling relationship are becoming clearer. Trump, if elected, seems less interested in prioritising India. He hasn’t named an ambassador to India, even though over 20 ambassadors, including some in minor countries, have already been nominated. This is a glaring omission for a country that has always aspired to be a close U.S. partner.

During his first term, Trump was proactive with India. He attended the massive "Howdy Modi" rally in Houston, supported India on several strategic issues, and often praised Modi’s leadership. The silence now speaks volumes. It is also a reminder that Trump’s America First policy has always been about immediate benefits, and India might not be high on his list this time.

India’s Long History of Playing It Safe

This is not the first time India has hesitated at a crucial moment. Since 1947, India has often chosen to stand in the middle, avoiding strong alliances. Whether it was during the Cold War, the nuclear deal with the U.S., or even economic reforms, India’s reluctance to take bold steps has cost it many opportunities.

The only exception was during Indira Gandhi’s time when she took decisive actions to strengthen India’s global position. From the Bangladesh liberation to the Pokhran nuclear tests, (Smiling Buddha) her leadership was an example of taking risks that paid off. In contrast, India’s recent foreign policy often feels reactive rather than proactive.

Modi’s reluctance to engage with Trump seems to follow this pattern. While it may have been an attempt to appear neutral during the U.S. elections, it came across as indecisive. Trump’s transactional nature means relationships matter deeply, and any hesitation is unlikely to be forgotten.

The H1B Debate: A Brewing Storm

Adding to this tension is the ongoing debate over H1B visas in the U.S. Business leaders like Elon Musk advocate for skilled immigration, arguing that it fuels innovation and growth. On the other side, populist voices like Steve Bannon oppose it, claiming it takes jobs away from Americans.

India, being the largest supplier of H1B workers, is directly affected. With Trump’s focus on "America First," this issue could become another pain point in the relationship unless India works hard to show mutual benefits.

Why Trump’s Silence Should Worry India

Trump’s silence on India is not just about the missed Mar-a-Lago meeting. It reflects a broader shift in priorities. His focus is now on domestic issues: economic revival, border security, and energy independence. Foreign policy, if at all, will be strictly transactional. For Trump, relationships are a give-and-take equation. Without strong Indian efforts to demonstrate benefits, the needle on India-U.S. ties is unlikely to move.

Trump’s America First Agenda: What It Means for India

Donald Trump’s political philosophy revolves around the concept of "America First." This approach prioritises domestic growth, economic revival, and securing America’s borders over extensive foreign engagements. His speeches, policies, and campaign promises indicate that this focus will remain the cornerstone of his administration, should he win the presidency in 2024. While this agenda resonates with Trump’s voter base, it poses challenges for countries like India that rely on robust bilateral ties with the U.S. to further their own strategic and economic goals.

Here are the key aspects of Trump’s priorities and their implications for India:

1. Economic Revival: Domestic Industries Over Globalisation

Trump’s focus is on reviving manufacturing in America and reducing reliance on imports, especially from nations that do not align directly with U.S. interests. This protectionist stance is expected to limit opportunities for countries like India to expand trade relations. For example:

• Tariffs and Trade Barriers: During his first term, Trump imposed tariffs on a range of goods, including those from allies, in the name of protecting American industries. A similar approach could affect Indian exports, particularly in textiles, pharmaceuticals, and IT services.
• Energy Independence: With Trump championing policies like "Drill Baby Drill," his administration would likely prioritise domestic oil and gas production over international energy cooperation. India, a significant buyer of U.S. crude oil, might find such policies limiting its options for energy imports.

2. Border Security and Immigration: The H1B Challenge

One of Trump’s most vocal promises has been securing America’s borders and reforming its immigration policies. His administration has historically cracked down on visa programs like H1B, which are critical for Indian IT professionals. While Elon Musk advocates for skilled immigration to fuel American technological growth, Trump’s administration might lean toward populist policies championed by figures like Steve Bannon, who argue against such programs. For India, this creates:

• Uncertainty for Skilled Workers: The largest share of H1B visas goes to Indians, and stricter immigration policies could disrupt this pipeline, affecting both Indian professionals and U.S.-based tech companies reliant on their expertise.
• Reduced Bilateral Cooperation: Immigration challenges could lead to friction in broader bilateral ties, as seen during Trump’s first term.

3. Energy and Infrastructure: A Closed Loop

Trump’s domestic focus means large investments in U.S. infrastructure, energy independence, and manufacturing. While this is beneficial for the American economy, it leaves little room for foreign countries like India to collaborate or benefit. India, which has been working to secure technology transfers and joint energy projects with the U.S., may find fewer opportunities under a Trump administration focused inward.

4. Foreign Policy: A Transactional Approach

Trump’s foreign policy is famously transactional—alliances and engagements are driven by immediate benefits to the U.S., not long-term strategic interests. This means India would have to offer tangible returns for any cooperation. For example:

• Defence Deals: Trump has always viewed defence partnerships as a way to boost American jobs through arms sales. India may have to prioritise high-value purchases of U.S. defence equipment to maintain goodwill.
• Geopolitical Cooperation: While India plays a key role in countering China’s influence in Asia, Trump’s domestic focus could mean reduced support for strategic initiatives like the Indo-Pacific alliance unless they directly benefit American interests.

5. Limited Focus on Global Leadership

Unlike traditional U.S. administrations that emphasised global leadership, Trump’s focus has been on addressing domestic challenges first. This shift could impact India in areas such as:

• Climate Change Cooperation: India has relied on partnerships with the U.S. for clean energy funding and technology. Under Trump, who has previously pulled out of the Paris Agreement, these efforts could stall.
• Multilateral Forums: India’s aspirations for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council or greater influence in global financial institutions may not receive active support from a Trump administration focused inward.

Repairing the Damage

India needs to act fast to rebuild trust with Trump. Here’s what the government can do:

1. Show Strategic Value:
   Focus on defence and trade agreements that benefit both nations. For instance, India could offer deals on American fighter jets or technology partnerships.

2. Leverage the Indian-American Community:
   The 4-million-strong Indian diaspora is a significant political and economic force in the U.S. India should encourage its diaspora to advocate for stronger bilateral ties.

3. Be Proactive in Communication:
   Regular high-level engagement can help rebuild trust. A well-planned visit to the U.S. with a clear agenda to discuss mutual growth areas could help reset the relationship.

4. Take a Clear Stand:
   Avoid sitting on the fence. Be bold in aligning with the U.S. on key global issues like countering China, securing technology transfers, and enhancing energy cooperation.

5. India must recognise that Trump’s priorities will revolve around "What’s in it for America?" For India, this means rethinking its engagement strategy and aligning proposals with Trump’s domestic goals. Here’s what India can do:

   • Invest in U.S. Manufacturing: India can offer partnerships that create American jobs, such as establishing Indian manufacturing plants in the U.S. or co-developing technologies with American firms.
   • Strengthen Defence Ties: High-value defence deals, such as acquiring U.S. fighter jets or missile systems, could help rebuild trust and demonstrate India’s commitment to the relationship.
   • Leverage the Diaspora: The Indian-American community, particularly in swing states, can play a crucial role in advocating for stronger ties between the two nations.
   • Prove Value in Strategic Partnerships: India must highlight its role as a counterbalance to China, offering tangible benefits like intelligence sharing, joint military exercises, and technology collaborations.

The Larger Picture

This situation is a stark reminder that diplomacy in today’s world is about making timely decisions. Trump’s cold response should push India to rethink its foreign policy approach. For too long, India has avoided bold moves, choosing to stay "non-aligned." While this strategy worked during the Cold War, it is less effective in today’s fast-changing geopolitical landscape.

India’s credibility depends on its ability to show consistency and decisiveness. Modi’s government must ensure that India is seen as a dependable partner, not one that hesitates when it matters most.

Looking Ahead

The road ahead will not be easy. Trump’s focus on domestic priorities means India will have to work harder to grab his attention. Building trust with someone as transactional as Trump will require bold moves and practical demonstrations of value. This is not the time to hesitate or play it safe.

India must learn from its history of missed opportunities. Otherwise, it risks being left behind in a world where standing still means falling back. With Russia also on a downward spiral and China a perceived enemy, we have nowhere to turn to!!!! 

Karthik

18th Jan 2025. (Boy 34 years since Bush Sr Bombed Baghdad.... My wedding day too ahhahah!)...